With five of 12 city council seats up for election on March 7, Burlington could see yet another swing in the balance of power in city hall. Democrats and Progressives have traded control in recent years, with Dems and their allies currently in the driver's seat. Progressives hope to recapture an East District seat they lost in a winter special election, while Democrats hope debate over policing in the city may win them new voters.

There are 10 candidates on this year's ballot, most of them new to city politics. Using ranked-choice voting, residents will decide contests in Ward 8, where there's a special election, and in the city's four districts, which contain two wards apiece. All the seats are contested, except in the North District, where independent incumbent Mark Barlow is running unopposed.

Candidates have positions on a range of issues, but two are dominating the discourse: housing and policing. The city's meager vacancy rate and recent increases in property tax bills have led candidates to call for building more homes and apartments. While there is some agreement on strategies for accomplishing that, the candidates diverge on public safety, which has been top of mind for voters as the police department struggles with a staffing shortage amid a spike in thefts and gun violence.

With Town Meeting Day just two weeks away — and mail-in ballots in the hands of voters — candidates have limited time to make their pitches. Seven Days spoke to council-hopefuls in the contested races about their plans if elected.

Central District

Melo Grant was crafting a rebuttal to an anonymous Reddit user when a Seven Days reporter called her last week. The commenter was challenging Grant's positions on public safety — a topic she knows well as a member of the Burlington Police Commission.

Grant told the commenter that she supports a proposal on the ballot to create a police oversight board whose members would be able to discipline officers, including the chief of police. The item is divisive; Progs are in favor, and Dems are opposed. As the Central District's Progressive candidate, Grant finds herself defending her party's position more often than she expected.

It's unclear if Grant's stance makes her vulnerable in the race. The Central District, which comprises much of the Old North End and downtown, has long been a Progressive bastion. It's currently represented by incumbent Councilor Perri Freeman, who is stepping down. Grant's platform includes some proposals that are palatable to Dems, such as bolstering the police department's team of unarmed first responders.

"Other parties have not been present for this district. They're just not," Grant said. "We have another election where you don't even have a Democrat running."

Instead, there's an independent candidate, Avery Muzikar, who thinks a "quiet unhappiness and discontent" with Progressives is brewing. A former Prog voter himself, Muzikar said the party has lofty ideals that are disconnected from reality, particularly around public safety.

Muzikar is opposed to the oversight board; one of his concerns is that it bans people with law enforcement experience from serving. Grant says racial disparities in arrest and use-of-force rates prove that Burlington cops can't police themselves.

The candidates have more common ground on housing policy. Both want the University of Vermont to build enough student housing to keep up with growing enrollment. (Muzikar, an alum and UVM's assistant director of residential life, knows firsthand about the problem.) And both want city zoning that allows denser residential development.

Grant, 59, has lived in the Old North End for 23 years. Besides being a police commissioner, she's well known as the host of "Cultural Bunker," a long-running hip-hop show on WRUV 90.1 FM. She frequently attends Neighborhood Planning Assembly meetings.

"I just feel I can hit the ground running in a way that he can't," Grant said.

Muzikar, 28, doesn't deny Grant's advantage in experience and name recognition, acknowledging he's a political "nobody." But he's confident his message will resonate.

"We need more people who are less attached to the campaigning and pontificating and more interested in just getting things done," he said.

East District

Control of the East District, which includes Wards 1 and 8, has seesawed between Progs and Dems in recent election cycles. When two Progressives resigned from the East District and Ward 8 seats in quick succession last fall, Dems were eager to scoop up those seats.

They succeeded in the East District, where Maea Brandt handily defeated two opponents to give her party an advantage on the council. But Brandt isn't running again, so Progs see a chance to regain lost ground.

Jockeying for the seat are Progressive Jake Schumann and Democrat Tim Doherty. Despite what's at stake for their respective parties, both candidates are painting themselves as practical, not ideological.

Schumann, who ran as an independent against Brandt in December, is now endorsed by Progressives. But he said he's not beholden to them.

"I would not just do as I'm told," Schumann, 32, said. "I would not follow party leadership without doing my own due diligence."

Doherty, 46, also said he's not invested in party politics.

"More than anything, I hope ... to be an independent-minded, nonpartisan, detail-oriented person who has a commonsense approach to city governance issues," he said.

For now, Doherty is working closely with party leadership. His campaign manager is Adam Roof, chair of the Burlington Democratic Committee. And earlier this week, Seven Days reported that Doherty's website contained verbatim passages that had appeared on Brandt's website. Roof acknowledged he made the mistake when updating Doherty's website.

If elected, Doherty would be the second attorney from Downs Rachlin Martin on the council; Ben Traverse (D-Ward 5) also works for the firm but in a different division.

Doherty's campaign is focused on constituent service. He pledges to promptly return emails and phone calls — a response to voters feeling abandoned when the councilors resigned.

Public safety is also part of his platform, but Doherty said he's not interested in "relitigating past fights" over policing.

"I hope to focus on, 'OK, we are where we are. What's the best path forward?'" he said.

Not the proposed oversight board, he said, answering his own question. Doherty wants to strengthen police accountability but worries that the proposed model — which removes the chief's final say over discipline — would hurt the city's attempts to hire and retain officers. Schumann, who helped get the item on the ballot, said he wouldn't support an initiative if he thought it would demoralize cops. A dispirited police force would make the city more dangerous, while his goal is making the city safer, he said.

Both candidates want to tackle housing and affordability. Schumann, a renter, wants the city to provide seed money for a tenants' union and to pass a policy that would give renters the right of first refusal to purchase their building if it went up for sale.

Doherty, a homeowner, wants to create a property tax relief fund for those who had their property values jump by a certain percentage during the 2021 citywide reassessment — but can't afford to pay. Doherty also wants to see Burlington conduct reassessments more frequently to prevent future sticker shock.

Does Doherty think Brandt's recent victory bodes well for his chances? He's not sure. Voters have told him they're less interested in electing a Dem than a candidate who will stick around. (Doherty said he will.)

Schumann, meantime, said he feels optimistic.

"We've always had an uphill battle to win this district," he said of Progressives. "But if we run a good race ... we can't lose."

South District

Burlington Progressives have always struggled in the South District, particularly against Democrat Joan Shannon.

The 20-year incumbent has won at least 65 percent of the vote in her last three reelection campaigns, each time defeating a Progressive-endorsed candidate. Shannon, 58, a real estate agent, is favored to win reelection this March with a campaign largely focused on public safety. But her two opponents hope that voters are tired of the status quo.

Will Anderson, 24, the Progressive candidate, is proposing policies that he thinks will have broad appeal. An analyst at the state Department of Finance and Management, Anderson wants Burlington to adopt a rent stabilization policy that would cap annual increases at just above the rate of inflation. Last year, the maximum allowable rent hike would have been 8.5 percent, Anderson estimates, calling that "very reasonable for landlords." He also wants to tax owners of multifamily properties at a higher rate.

FaRied Munarsyah, 45, an independent, said he is running to give people more say in local decisions. An organizer with mutual aid group the People's Kitchen, Munarsyah is the main driver behind "Prop Zero," a ballot item that would allow issues to be decided by referenda. (Anderson supports the proposal; Shannon doesn't.) Munarsyah also wants more funding for the city's Neighborhood Planning Assemblies and is promoting participatory budgeting, a process in which residents would collectively decide how to spend city funds.

But the challengers' greatest vulnerability could be public safety, namely their support for the oversight board, which Shannon vehemently opposes. Shannon said board members — who would be appointed by representatives of community organizations that are selected by the mayor and council — wouldn't be accountable to the public. And she worries about the cost, since the proposal would form a new city department. Proponents haven't provided budget estimates.

Shannon would prefer to empower the existing police commission. She also wants to hire more police officers by increasing the number of authorized positions beyond the current 87. Like her opponents, she supports deploying unarmed professionals to answer certain calls.

"Voters are concerned with the direction of Burlington," she said. "They do want the full spectrum of public safety measures, not just policing. My message to voters is: I hear you."

Anderson and Munarsyah are confident some voters will agree with their message: that police can't fix the root causes of crime.

But they're also realistic about their chances of winning. Munarsyah said he'll succeed if he can convince residents to pay more attention to local politics. Anderson agreed, saying he'd like to at least start a conversation about progressive housing policy.

"I will be assuming until the end that I can do that," he said.

Ward 8

Hannah King is feeling a bit of déjà vu.

Just as a year ago, she is the Democratic nominee in Ward 8, and her Progressive opponent is a UVM student. But this time, King, 22, hopes the outcome is different.

Last March, King lost by 43 votes to Ali House, who resigned less than a year later — only a month after a fellow Prog in the East District called it quits. The exodus left Ward 8, which includes college student neighborhoods and the UVM residential campus, without any representation for months.

That's why King is sticking with the same promise as last year: If elected, she wouldn't go anywhere.

"I think it's a message that's resonating now more than last time," King said. "People are just really tired and want someone that is going to do the job."

But her opponent, 20-year-old Rhone Allison, who uses they/them pronouns, said they're just as committed.

"I've worked long hours before," said Allison, a full-time student studying economics and history. "It's hard, but it's not impossible."

To win, the candidates must curry favor with college students, who make up a significant chunk of Ward 8 voters — but who rarely turn out to vote.

Both candidates have experience with political campaigns. Allison helped Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky (P/D-Chittenden Central) and Rep. Kate Logan (P/D-Burlington) get elected last November. King just finished a gig as finance director for U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.).

King is playing up that work on the campaign trail. She has also served on the Ward 8 Neighborhood Planning Assembly steering committee and on a city advisory board that makes grants for initiatives that fight poverty.

Allison may be less involved in city government, but the Prog has a healthy number of policy proposals. Allison's 22-point platform includes creating a municipal bike-share program, raising the city's minimum wage to $20 an hour and capping flights out of Burlington International Airport to reduce carbon emissions. Another item calls for nixing the city's annual $10,000 contribution to the Lake Champlain Chamber — King's employer — and giving the funds to labor groups.

Allison is also focused on housing, calling it "the biggest issue in the city."

Last year, King campaigned on rent stabilization and a guaranteed minimum wage. While she said she'd still support those big-ticket issues if elected, her website is devoid of policy ideas this time. Her camp aign materials simply include her promise to be responsive and put "real progress before politics as usual."

Allison criticized King for having bare-bones policy, but King said the messaging is deliberate: "I've just been trying to keep it really simple: Do more listening than talking this time," she said.

Will voters respond to that approach? Allison doesn't want to guess but acknowledged that a Ward 8 win would be significant for either party.

"Maybe I win [and] this signals increasing momentum for the Progressives. Maybe I lose, and it signals Dem domination," Allison said. "I won't know until March."